The SMB Foundation Training Program
This is an exciting day. You are starting a journey of learning. This challenge will test you as a person like nothing else in your life. This journey will test your discipline, your work ethic, your mental toughness, your ability to think clearly under pressure, your ability to work well with others, your ability to focus for extended periods of time… and so much more. For you football fans, welcome to the NFL of trading. For you baseball fans, welcome to “The Show”. For those of you who aren’t sports fans, I don’t really have any good analogies for you. But I promise to work on some. Seriously, today is the start of a great challenge. We expect nothing less than everything you can give.
Steve and I serve as your Mentors. Our job is to tell you the truth. We offer our suggestions. Our suggestions are just lessons learned from a decade plus of trading. Lessons taught to us by the market. We are only interested in helping you recognize your trading talent. If you need help, please just ask. We will stay as late as it takes to help explain a topic to you. We are here to help.
We work as hard as we can everyday to provide:
1) the best training program on the Street
2) a desk where you are treated fairly
3) an environment where you enjoy your work and your colleagues
4) a professional trading desk.
Every decision we make considers the four goals above. We have only two rules:
1) Never do anything detrimental to yourself
2) Respect every member on our desk.
For the past decade I have worked as a “day trader”. I have never understood the need for the word day in front of the word trader to describe what I do. I am a trader. I am a short-term trader. But some guys at the big banks and the media decided to put the word day in front of what I do, so who I am to call myself anything else. And I should eliminate the word “worked” from my previous statement. Honestly, I am fortunate to share that I have never worked a day in my life. I have traded. And when you get good, that isn’t work. That is pure, unadulterated fun.
You are attempting to join our club. By club, I mean the club of consistently profitable day traders. I don’t decide who gets to join. The market does. That is my boss. The market is your boss. And She doesn’t just let anyone in. So we have some work to do. But the reward is nothing short of the best job in the world.
Top 10 News Plays :
We teach you how to find the stocks in play. News driven stocks are easier to trade. It is easier to read the tape in these stocks. We recommend that you develop a list of the best news plays for you. You should find stocks in play daily by following our system. If you are having trouble, please spend some more time with Mike. It is just a matter of better learning our system and gaining some experience. You are only as good as the stocks that you trade. When you master finding the stocks in play your results will improve.
Below is a list of our best news plays. Feel free to add some of these plays to your list.
1) Full Year revenues are higher than the consensus.
A company can report for just one quarter, or two quarters, or a few quarters and for the full year. We are most confident when a company provides its full year guidance because we have more information.
Revenues are more important than the bottom line number(s). When a company reports we are most interested in how its core business is performing. Revenues tell us more about how the core business of the company is doing. So if revenues for the full year are better than expected this usually tells us that the company’s core business is strong. And, thus, more likely to attract buyers.
2) Significant news for a stock and in the Premarket its volume and price signal the stock is in play.
If a stock is up 5-10 plus percent and its volume is 10-20 plus percent of its daily average volume before the Open, this a signal that the stock is in play. Recognize the Premarket support and resistance levels. And consider using the level where most of the volume was done Premarket as an important technical level.
3) Significant news on a stock and it’s opening near a significant technical level
I am very interested when a stock is about to open near a significant technical level. If the stock holds an offer below an important technical level then I get short, if the bid holds above this level, then I get long. And I especially like this play right on the Open. If there is light volume on the Open and the stock quickly moves away from this level, then I consider a fade play. I use these levels to help me determine how significant and positive the news really is. I let the stock tell me how strong it is based upon whether it is trading above or below this significant technical level.
4) New product, new drug, new contract that the Street was not expecting and the price and volume is higher in the Premarket than normal.
Buyers are looking for unusual news. If a new product, contract, or drug is launched and the Street was not expecting this news, then the stock will be in play. And this stock will likely trade considerably higher.
News that a company’s new product is doing surprisingly well will also likely cause the stock to trade much higher. When you discover this trading scenario, consider whether the market knows how to price this stock. Understand that this trading scenario will require you to trade the momentum. If the stock is going higher, then it is going higher. If the stock isn’t going higher, then it isn’t going higher. If you pay the offer you should expect the stock to trade higher and quickly. A pause on the offer, a hold on the offer, a stock that is not making a new high that has been a momentum stock is one that is dangerous to hold. Momentum stocks trade higher and quickly when they are going up. Pauses or holds on the offer may signal a sharp downmove.
5) Stock has sold off lately and finally some good news
For those who have spent some time on our desk, you know how we feel about upgrades. Basically, someone is trying to sell something to someone else, so upgrades can be biased. And, thus, upgrades are often not significant. However, if a stock has sold off considerably recently almost anything positive should get the attention of buyers. And an upgrade from a Tier I firm may attract some buyers to a beaten down security. Further, positive news other than an upgrade (perhaps the company providing better visibility) may attract buyers.
6) Multiple upgrades from respected firms and especially if the price upgrade is much higher that where the stock is trading.
When I review an upgrade I ask myself if the reasons for the upgrade are convincing. That is the most important aspect of an upgrade. If I discover multiple upgrades from respected firms, usually this will attract buyers. I especially pay attention to the price of the upgrades. If the upgrade price is significantly higher than the price it is presently trading, then I am more interested.
7) A stock that I trade well, one that is in my zone, with significant news and showing some movement in the Premarket, without the noise.
New traders must find their zone for stocks. Your zone is the volume, price, industries, and market you are most comfortable trading. Find the stocks you are most comfortable trading based upon volume, price, industries, and its market. You will trade stocks in your zone more successfully than those outside.
Be sensitive to the noise of a stock. Ask if too many day traders will be trading your stock. Will there be too many traders such that it will be overly difficult to read the tape? If so, trade a stock that has less noise so that you can read the tape.
8) A stock opening above an important technical level and with no level in sight on significant news.
Steve loves these plays. Understand that if a stock clears a significant resistance level and there are no levels for awhile that the stock may run until it reaches the next resistance level. So if there is a huge gap until the next resistance level and the stock trades strongly on the Open, it may trade higher until it meets the next level.
9) Second day or even the Third Day after significant news.
On the First Day of news, I gather important levels for a stock. On the Second and Third Days, I may trade off of the levels that I learned on the First Day. I set alerts for levels where a stock is a great long and a great short. In my trading journal, I record notes of who the big sellers and buyers are. I learn the catalysts for the stock’s moves. When you are watching a stock on the First Day notice where most of the volume is being done. And make note of these levels.
10) Margins higher of market share gains that are above consensus and significant.
The street loves higher margins or market share gains. If you see this and the stock is up 10 percent on the Open understand that it can trade up much higher. Momentum may build behind the stock.