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Profiting With Forex
The Most Effective Tools and Techniques for Trading Currencies
INTRODUCTION xi
CHAPTER 1
Profiting with Forex 1
What Is the Forex Market? 3
The Advantages of the Forex Market 3
Mind the Gaps 8
Life Is Going to Happen 22
Diversification 25
Protect and Multiply 26
The Forex Can Be Fickle 28
The Skeptic’s FAQ 29
Taking Advantage of the Forex Market 33
CHAPTER 2
Basic Lingo Lesson 37
Pip 37
Currency Pair 38
Contract (or Lot) 41
CHAPTER 3
How the Forex Market Works 43
CHAPTER 4
Genesis and Growth of the Forex Market 51
The Modern Gold Standard 52
It Has All Happened Before 58
Profiting from History 65
CHAPTER 5
Fundamental Analysis Tools 67
CHAPTER 6
The U.S. Government 71
The Fundamental Factor 71
The National Debt 72
The Fundamental Tool: TIC Data 79
Interest Rates 82
The Fundamental Tool: The Target Interest Rate 84
Using the Tools 89
CHAPTER 7
Inflation 91
The Fundamental Factor 91
Combating Inflation 94
The Fundamental Tool: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) 96
Using the Tools 100
CHAPTER 8
The U.S. Stock Market 101
The Fundamental Factor 101
The Fundamental Tool: The S&P 500 via the SPY 105
Using the Tools 111
CHAPTER 9
China 113
The Fundamental Factor 113
United States’ Dependence on China 117
The Fundamental Tool: USD/CNY Exchange Rate 119
The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 121
The Fundamental Tool: Balance of Trade 126
Using the Tools 129
CHAPTER 10
Oil 131
The Fundamental Factor 131
What Is Oil? 132
The Genesis of Big Oil 132
OPEC 136
Oil and Your Portfolio 138
The Fundamental Tool: NYMEX Crude Oil Futures 141
Using the Tools 145
CHAPTER 11
Breaking News 147
The Fundamental Factor 147
Guessing Right 149
Guessing Wrong 152
The Fundamental Tool: Technical Analysis 152
Using the Tools 154
CHAPTER 12
Seesaw of Supply and Demand 155
The Seesaw and Individual Currencies 155
The Seesaw and Currency Pairs 158
Interest Rates and the GBP/JPY 160
Conclusion 163
CHAPTER 13
Technical Analysis Tools 165
Technical Indicators 167
Technical Analysis Tool: The Moving Average 169
Technical Analysis Tool: Oscillating Indicators 170
Terms of the Trade 173
CHAPTER 14
Support, Resistance, and Fibonacci 175
Support and Resistance 176
Fibonacci 197
Using the Tools 212
CHAPTER 15
Putting It All Together—Trading Techniques 213
Trading Technique 1: The Carry Trade 214
Trading Technique 2: Trading Economic Announcements 220
Trading Technique 3: Following Oil 224
Trading Technique 4: Following Gold 228
Trading Technique 5: Technical Divergences 234
More Trading Techniques 238
CHAPTER 16
Money Management 239
Money Management Pitfalls 240
Money Management Rules 244
Conclusion 248
CHAPTER 17
Getting Started 249
Thanks, but No Thanks 249
Profit with a Professional 250
I’m Ready to Dive In 250
Conclusion 253
APPENDIX
Fat Tails 255
